Kim Kha

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

Good afternoon.

Today is Tuesday, March 24th, and I'm your host, Kim Kha.

Our top story so far.

Trading this week has underscored just how sensitive markets are to any hint of an endgame in the Iran conflict, verified or not.

Large, rapid moves on heavy volume following social media posts are raising a new question.

Are traders positioning even before the rumor hits?

The Financial Times reported that roughly 6,200 Brent and WTI futures contracts with a notional value of around $580 million were

traded between 6.49 a.m.

and 6.50 a.m.

Eastern Time on Monday, around 15 minutes before President Donald Trump posted about productive negotiations.

There's no indication whether the trades were placed by a single entity or multiple participants, and no evidence of insider knowledge.

The White House called any suggestion of involvement by officials baseless.

However, the FT noted that several hedge funds see the activity as part of a broader pattern of large trades preceding government announcements.

Trading on rumor is nothing new, but UBS chief economist Paul Donovan said the scarcity of reliable information is making objective interpretation more difficult.

Investors may start looking for leading indicators of the next narrative, whether fake or real, he said, warning that outsized positioning itself can become a signal of perceived policy shifts.

Investors want to believe stories that the war is ending, a mix of loss aversion and confirmation bias, Donovan added.

Among active stocks, BFA analyst Tal Liani reinstated coverage on four major AI-linked names, all with bullish ratings.

Oracle was rated buy with a $200 price target.

Liani sees significant revenue potential that said the company must prove it can deliver capacity, convert long-dated contracts into revenue, and manage a capital-intensive expansion.