Krystal Ball

But certainly seems that it will be disruptive and is already being disruptive in some significant ways.

I just want to ask you on the financial piece of this, because I just interviewed another journalist who has a different view of this, of the economic aspect, Garrison Lovely, last week.

And his contention is that they actually, each individual model, if taken on its own,

is profitable, that the revenue of, for example, OpenAI and Anthropic has skyrocketed in a very short period of time.

Now, they are not net profitable because of the amount of money that they plow into training new models and that when you take that into account that they are not profitable.

But if you just look at any individual model to run and the user base they've been able to acquire, that they actually are profitable.

quite profitable and do have an economic business model that makes sense, at least in the near term.

So what is your response to that view?

Well, removing the costs of training the next model is the idea here.

So if you stopped at the existing model and had the user base you have, that they would actually be profitable today.

But it's that investment in the research for the future that leads to that picture that you're presenting.

And we should say since they're not public, we don't have a total complete financial picture, which I think is important to add to this conversation.

Yeah.

So the other thing Elon has going for him is you mentioned that the Elon industrial complex is how tightly tied in he is with the government and especially this government.

I mean, you know, SpaceX relies on government contracts.

He obviously put a quarter of a billion dollars into Trump's reelection campaign.

They had a falling out, but they're back together now.

Unlike Dario Amadei, who's clearly on the ounce as a disfavored oligarch in the economy, Elon Musk and I think Sam Altman are both favored oligarchs.

And Altman in particular seems to be betting explicitly on the idea that already his company and the gigantic bet this country has placed on AI development makes it too big to fail.

And so I wonder if that also is a challenge for your theory that there's a bubble that will crash at some point simply because even if you're right about the underlying economics –