Krystal Ball

Nobody knows what it is, but it's very strong.

Now, Professor Pape, we can put B1 up on the screen.

This is from The Escalation Trap.

You wrote, uncertain deal, and Iran certainly enters its period of maximum leverage.

This was on June 15th.

You said, despite the headlines, this deal remains highly uncertain.

And that, I think, is proven to be true even two days later as we approach the Friday signing deadline that the vice president was telling everybody yesterday is coming up.

So,

Walk us through a little bit of this argument from your end, Professor Pape, about how Iran is in its maximum leverage period right now.

Yeah, let's start with the big picture.

And then I want to comment directly on what President Trump said, because I think I can offer some clarity for your audience about what's going on as he's parsing his words.

But let's start with the big picture.

President Trump lost the bombing.

Now he's at great risk.

for losing the deal.

And what I mean by that is that Iran came out of the bombing, not just didn't collapse, but came out of the bombing with power.

It gained control of Hormuz.

Now with the deal, the big risk in the deal, and I understand it's very controversial, but the risk is Iran is gaining more power through the deal.

And that is very important to understand, that Iran in the deal, even by the terms President Trump describes and JD Vance describes, Iran will come out more powerful through the deal than it is today.

So this is of enormous importance because we already understand that with the deal, and this is completely agreed to by President Trump, Iran will be able to sell oil immediately.