Krystal Ball

And they're like, well, it's just an option to be able to trade derivatives without trading derivatives.

Why?

Why is that good?

Can anyone tell me that?

This is what happened more recently.

Everything about their pitch is a deeply libertarian democratization of finance, which sounds good on paper, which is bad in practice.

So the day trading thing, for example.

Recently, the Trump administration removed a $25,000 cash limit that you have to have on hand to be able to place more than five trades in a day.

A lot of retail day traders said, great, thank you for democratizing day trading.

Let's look at the data.

The absolute vast majority of consumer day traders will get wiped out within two to three months.

That's empirical.

You can actually go and look at that.

If you're not a hedge fund, basically trading on quasi-insider information,

with market-moving trades, and you really, really have a real place in Wall Street, the absolute vast majority of you will get crushed and you will lose your money.

That $25,000 limit was put into place after dot-com specifically because a bunch of retail day traders during the dot-com crash in the 1990s were opening E-Trade accounts and got destroyed at a consumer level.

So we've just removed that.

Same with Kalshi.

Why are we betting on oil futures?

Like right now, if you want to trade a real oil future, you need like $20,000, $30,000 in cash.