Lael Brainard

And in consumer sentiment, we saw yesterday that the combination of high prices and diminished job opportunities are leading to some real concern on the part of consumers with the lowest consumer sentiment.

since 2014, which is a little hard to understand given the pandemic.

But the job of the Federal Reserve is to focus on the overall labor market, and it does look like the labor market is in pretty good balance.

It certainly has stabilized.

We saw some uptick in the unemployment rate, but then in the last month or so, it seems to be holding steady.

Yeah.

And growth is certainly strong.

And of course, you've still got strong inflation, which the chair talked about.

Core PCE, which is really their focus.

Yeah.

3.1 percent.

So, look, I think every policymaker on the FOMC uses a combination of both the Fed's models but also outside models.

They look at private sector forecasts.

They talk to business contacts.

I certainly talk to community leaders, labor leaders, consumers.

You gather as much information as you can about how the economy is likely to evolve.

So it's not really driven by a single model.

I think that would lead to perhaps much less robust policymaking.

And of course, you're right that with AI driving potentially a real structural shift in the economy, they have to be getting data from businesses and from workers on the ground to get a sense of that turning point

which is so hard to capture in models that are based on past data and past relationships.