Lalit Modi

That's a big swing, one way or the other.

That's a big swing, one way or the other.

Yes. Do you know what the players union is?

Yes. Do you know what the players union is?

Or indirectly the IPL. Yep. Yeah, because the BCCI sets the salary cap or the auction purse size. Right.

Or indirectly the IPL. Yep. Yeah, because the BCCI sets the salary cap or the auction purse size. Right.

The effective state of play right now, they are all effectively serfs to the BCCI and the IPL.

The effective state of play right now, they are all effectively serfs to the BCCI and the IPL.

Okay, I love it. That is the right backdrop investor mindset to think through evaluating these cases. First, bull case is just simply media rates expansion, which is just simply demographics.

Okay, I love it. That is the right backdrop investor mindset to think through evaluating these cases. First, bull case is just simply media rates expansion, which is just simply demographics.

If nothing else happens except that India and the Indian middle class keeps growing like it has been and is projected to, both in absolute size of the Indian middle class and relative wealth of the Indian middle class relative to other countries in the world, that alone is probably the biggest lever here.

If nothing else happens except that India and the Indian middle class keeps growing like it has been and is projected to, both in absolute size of the Indian middle class and relative wealth of the Indian middle class relative to other countries in the world, that alone is probably the biggest lever here.

Yep. So if that current growth rate in the domestic Indian ad market of call it six, seven percent per year sustains over the next 20 years, that I believe compounded over 20 years is about a 10x growth. If that happens with no slowdown, great, there's 10x right there. So that gets your media rights to $12 billion 20 years from now. To NFL size.

Yep. So if that current growth rate in the domestic Indian ad market of call it six, seven percent per year sustains over the next 20 years, that I believe compounded over 20 years is about a 10x growth. If that happens with no slowdown, great, there's 10x right there. So that gets your media rights to $12 billion 20 years from now. To NFL size.

And obviously there'll be growth in the NFL too, but here's why I think demographics is actually the single most important thing. The NFL has basically already saturated its TAM. The total addressable market of people who care about American football is... is at most 500 million people. It is all of the U.S. It is arguably Canada. You could throw that in there.

And obviously there'll be growth in the NFL too, but here's why I think demographics is actually the single most important thing. The NFL has basically already saturated its TAM. The total addressable market of people who care about American football is... is at most 500 million people. It is all of the U.S. It is arguably Canada. You could throw that in there.

Although to a lesser degree, I think, than the U.S. Yep. And then maybe you find some pockets of other people around the world, but there's not a lot. You got to stretch to get to 500 million.

Although to a lesser degree, I think, than the U.S. Yep. And then maybe you find some pockets of other people around the world, but there's not a lot. You got to stretch to get to 500 million.

And they have been trying for a long time and they have not thus far been succeeding to any meaningful degree.

And they have been trying for a long time and they have not thus far been succeeding to any meaningful degree.