Lana

Hey, I'm Lana with your daily brief for Saturday, April 11th.

Coming up, prediction markets are turning the weather into a tradable asset.

And inflation is on the rise around the world.

We'll also check in with Carl to get his answers to your burning questions.

More on the way, but first...

People will bet on anything.

Elections, sports, whether Elon Musk will buy OnlyFans, and prediction markets, that gray zone between Wall Street and Vegas, are where they do it.

Lately, platforms like CalShe and PolyMarket have been turning everyone's go-to small talk topic into a tradable asset.

Weather's not a massive category.

Volumes on a snowstorm in New York last January were just $6 million on Polymarket, a drop in its billion-dollar bucket.

But it's getting attention.

Firms that offer tailored forecasts for private clients are starting to compare the market's wagers against their own models, while climate researchers are investigating whether prediction market bets could beat traditional forecasting.

Accurate forecasting matters to picnickers and investors alike.

Heat waves and cold snaps boost power demand.

Hurricanes snarl supply chains, and extreme weather drives insurance claims.

Prediction sites won't replace mathematical modeling, but they might turn weather expectations into a live market signal.

See, the odds move not just because of what's happening, but also because of what people think is going to happen.

Prediction markets distill those stakes into probabilities that investors and businesses could use to gauge risks.

Prediction markets can be fun, but risky.

You can lose money fast when you're up against players with better data.