Lana

But then the tone shifted.

On social media, the president said the U.S.

would hold off for five days, citing constructive talks.

So investors rushed the net, pushing stocks and bonds higher, even sending the benchmark oil price down 15% at one point.

But that relief rally might not stick around.

Iranian authorities denied that any such talks were happening and said there are no plans to reopen the waterway.

Central banks, including in the US, UK, and Europe, flagged rising uncertainty and inflation risks last week.

Against that kind of backdrop, investors usually turn to government bonds for safety.

But this time, that's not been the case.

See, if inflation does stay higher, that would push interest rates up and bond prices down.

Even gold isn't much help right now.

It's down about 15% this month.

There's a pattern here, big aggressive threats, and then a walk back when markets react.

This time, rising U.S.

borrowing costs may have played a role.

By the end of last week, investors were starting to price in an interest rate hike this year, when, not long ago, they'd been betting on at least one cut.

That's not ideal.

Higher rates jack up the cost of mortgages and other loans, slowing the economy.

Heading into midterm elections, that's not what any president wants.

Before we dive into the next story, it's time for our daily check-in with Carl.