Latif Nasser

Hi, I'm Aubrey, calling from Salt Lake City, Utah.

Hey, everyone.

Before we get into this week's episode, I want to share that Ramtin is no longer with the show.

I'm thankful for all his hard work and dedication over the years, from creating the show with me to his contributions to countless episodes since.

His storytelling, creative vision, and music were invaluable.

Throughline will be continuing, and I will still be your host.

The team and I will be making the show you know with the same care and curiosity.

Thank you for listening.

Your support means so much.

And now, on to the show.

Half a million dollars.

That's how much money someone made a couple months ago on a risky bet.

And if that person's bet was a lucky guess, it was very lucky.

Because the odds the U.S.

was going to strike Iran that day hovered between 7 and 26 percent.

And the better doubled down in the hours before President Trump announced the strike.

Since the beginning of the year, online traders have wagered more than $2 billion on events relating to the Iran war alone.

It's all happening on prediction markets, websites where anyone can make an account and bet on the future.

Yes or no questions like, will France win the World Cup?

Or will the White House press secretary use the word heinous in her next news briefing?