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Lennart Heim

👤 Person
531 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

But there is a reason right now why NVIDIA is like so high on the stock market.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

So it costs you billions to just get the GPUs.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

Of course, it's better a lot of times you don't need to actually build your own cluster.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

You can just go to a cloud computing company and rent the GPUs, right?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

So you tell them, hey, could I get 30,000 GPUs, say, for six months?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

If you do it this way, then current systems cost them like the three-digit millions for the computing power alone.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

DeepSeek puts out this number.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

It costs about $6 million.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

This does only include the amortized cost for buying the GPUs.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

It does not include the salaries.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

It doesn't include all of your failures and experiments.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

We at least know from one paper, I think it was the science paper where Hugging Face played a big role, where they said the total amount of compute spend was actually 3x the amount we spend on the final training round.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

You make mistakes, you do de-risking training rounds.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

I'm not going to spend $100 billion on a new architecture, which I haven't tested.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

So I start with a small architecture, scale it up, see if it works.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

That's the whole idea, right?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

It's trial and error, and you throw a compute at it.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

And someone will say, sure, why not?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

Let's burn it, and hopefully we get a good system out of it.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

So everything we just said before is still true.