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Lennart Heim

👤 Person
531 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

So all of these things are now combined, but the cost can be kind of staggering, right?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

And I think the key implication is here to achieve the best capabilities at the beginning, you spend a ton of time on appearance.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

But again, AI moves forward, our exponentials move forward, everything gets cheaper over time.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

You know, we do something and then we later learn how to do it cheaper.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

Just like economies of scale, we build bigger models.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

And I think that's the case for, like, computer science since forever, right?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

And I think for AI, it's just, like, staggering because we have, like, these basically brute force approaches.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

We've got a big model, we do it, and then later we get smarter over it and we have, like, these computer efficiency improvements.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

And again, the odds are really fast, right?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

It's roughly 3x per year.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

So like basically the cost to achieve a given capability is like 3x cheaper at the end of the year because we just recruit.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

Again, this is really hard to measure.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

Do you do it with loss?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

Do you do it on a specific benchmark?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

It gets tricky, but the rough trend line is

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

And then DeepSeq is, I think, caught many by surprise because they just didn't think about it.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

They just felt like, oh, it's always cost us a hundred million.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

DeepSeq is perfectly on the trend line, basically, if you look at it, just like it sits directly where it's supposed to sit.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

The exception might be test time compute.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
China’s catching up to US AI… Here’s why it won’t matter

This is actually a bigger increase in terms of compute efficiency in quantistar by improvement, which we've seen before.