Lise Doucette

He'd suggested when his name was first proposed for the role that he wasn't worthy of it.

It was reported last year, even before the 12-day war, that Ayatollah Khamenei had already instructed the body known as the Assembly of Experts to prepare for any eventuality, including his assassination.

And at the time, the New York Times reported that a short list of at least three possible candidates had been drawn up,

so that when the moment came, they would be able to move swiftly to ensure there was no vacuum.

And of course, these preparations took on added urgency when Iran saw, even in the first wave of attacks last year, that Israel was able to assassinate, on the first night alone, nine nuclear scientists, top security chiefs.

And now there is a new war and the assembly of experts will be poised to move into action to choose a new supreme leader.

And there has been speculation for many years over who could possibly replace Ayatollah Khamenei, the second supreme leader since the Iranian revolution of 1979.

And among the possible successors has been the name of his son, Moshe Baal.

But there are many who say, no, that simply cannot be possible because in Shia Islam tradition, you don't have that kind of anointing with some member of your own family.

I think it would be a big leap to think that the change of one individual would mean the end of the regime.

It would be change in the regime.

But once it's been announced that there is a new person in charge, whatever the orientation of this cleric, and he's certain to be a conservative cleric, his overriding objective will be absolutely the same.

And that is the survival of the Islamic Republic, the survival of clerical rule and the continuing power of

of the security forces who keep this system in place.

That is the absolutely red line for this regime.

And we've seen that whether there have, for example, been presidents who are regarded more as more reformists or hardline, no matter who they are, they all fall in line when it comes to the survival of this clerical regime.

Will these attacks concentrate their minds about a possible shift in direction?

Of course, after what happened in Venezuela, where you had the removal of a president and a new president stepping into place and working with the United States of America.

Could that happen in Iran?

It will be much more difficult.