Lou Whiteman

But look, a year ago, when Liberation Day happened, a lot of smart people I listened to said it would take a year to 18 months for tariffs to really impact the economy.

If so, we're only just getting there.

Similarly, a lot of people are now saying, smart people I respect, that the Middle East war or the oil shock, that's going to take six months at least to really impact us.

So, as annoying as it is, I think the answer is, it's okay for now.

My gut is we are at least headed towards a technical recession, if not worse, that there is going to be a recession this year.

Maybe one we don't feel, but in hindsight, we're going to look at it and say, yeah, it was a recession.

A mild recession.

I think that's still possible.

I don't want to be Chicken Little here, but all of these pressures are building.

All we can say is, so far, so good.

We'll see how it ends up.

The K-shape is real.

We've been talking about it.

You know, people who can spend continue to spend.

Everybody makes their decisions on an individual household level, and a lot of people are still fine spending.

I do think that it's inevitable that the critical mass of people who are able to do that is going to shrink because of all this pressure.

The debate, the uncertainty, the unknown is how much that critical mass shrinks and whether or not it shrinks to a point where it can't hold us up anymore.

TBD, I still go back to, yeah, it's going to get worse from here, but I think hopefully we can avoid the worst of the worst.

I don't want to be bearish on Nvidia.

I love this company.