Luca Ferrari

You think you understand.

I don't think you really do.

There is a cost to pay.

It takes time.

But then on the bright side, you're basically smarter at then predicting the future when you find yourself in a similar situation again.

So assumption setting is critical for us.

We have many assumptions, each has a probability distribution.

And we debate assumptions extensively without ever looking at what the model will spit out as a consequence.

That's forbidden.

Because we think that if you see the P&L, basically the business plan...

As you do it, there are all sorts of biases.

It doesn't look good enough, and you're like, oh, maybe this is conservative.

We do not look at the output, only at the inputs.

We debate, analyze, dig for more data.

Once we're happy, that's the best we can do.

At this stage, we run a Monte Carlo simulation, and then we look at the distribution of IRR, MPV, and that's the truth.

Nobody can say, now that I see it, I think maybe we were a bit pessimistic with the assumptions.

No, too late.

This is not the truth.

This is what will guide our negotiation.