Luke Harding
Appearances
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
Yeah, it's really been hotting up on several fronts, political, military, internationally, on the battlefield. I visited recently in the northeast Kharkiv region, a place called Kupinsk, and also another front line near Sumy, where Ukraine has since August occupied a chunk of territory inside Russia.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
In Kupinsk, where I was, the Russians were a couple of miles away. They are sending drones into the streets to chase and hunt civilians. And Russia is winning the war in the east of Ukraine purely because of mass. It's got more of everything. It's got more men. It's got more tanks. It's got more warplanes. And, you know, meanwhile, of course, the other big development is Donald Trump.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
What that means, Kiev, the presidential administration of Volodymyr Zelensky is bracing for impact.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
And interestingly, opinion in Kyiv about what Trump will mean for Ukraine is mixed. There's quite a strong faction, group of people who think that Trump might just be good news for Ukraine, that he might somehow bring about an end to the war.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
And managed to cut a deal with Vladimir Putin, because by now there was an enormous frustration with the Biden administration, with its policy of incrementalism, everything too little too late, with its caution, with the fact that it freaks out whenever Putin says the nuclear word. And some people think that Trump might just be the person to kind of change all this.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
There are other more cool-headed Ukrainians who think that Trump will be a disaster, that he will sell out Ukraine, to Russia and essentially enforce a kind of capitulation light, some kind of deal where Ukraine gives up territory, makes a commitment not to join NATO, and so on. But the countdown is on until January the 20th. We don't really quite know what's going to happen.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
Yeah, there's been a long and difficult and contentious conversation that has been happening since really last year, or if not before, where Zelensky and his team have been asking the White House, the Biden White House, for permission to carry out deep strikes inside Russia using attackams, using long-range American systems which are highly effective and highly accurate.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
And Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, you know, Biden, have basically said no, no, no, no, no, no, no. And to the point where really I think To some degree, you can say it's spoiled the relationship between Biden and Zelensky because it's become mistrustful.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
Various official, Pentagon officials, other officials, complaining loudly about the Ukrainians, about their rudeness, about their... military failings and so on. And the Ukrainians for whom this war is existential, you know, bear in mind that people are dying every night. Russian missiles are striking all the time, killing civilians, killing kids, killing families.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
They are saying, you know, just give us these tools. And finally, in the very twilight of his presidency, after Kamala Harris lost the election with Trump on the horizon, the White House has allowed these strikes and Ukraine has wasted no time in whacking strategic targets. So there's a real sense that the tempo of war is stepping up, not that it's ever been slack. It's always been pretty busy.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
Yeah, I mean, the question is a fair one, but the paradigm is completely wrong. I mean, we just have to sort of go back to basics here. Russia invaded Ukraine more than 10 years ago when an ex-Crimean started a kind of covert military operation in the east of the country and seized the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
So Russia's been escalating all the way through. And then, of course, in February 2022, it launched the biggest war, land war, in Europe since 1945, with shock and awe, with tank divisions trying to capture Kyiv, with a multi-pronged invasion.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
Which the Ukrainians, really to the surprise of America and other allies, kind of batted back.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
And they've been, you know, trying to take back territory and really, you know, in the last year or so, just hold the front line with varying degrees of success. And during this period, there have been no nuclear strikes. You know, Putin has not nuked Texas or London or Paris or indeed Kiev or southern Ukraine. It's the most enormous bluff.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
And it's a sort of psychological operation designed to cow the democratic world and to make them afraid of supporting Ukraine. And also to promote the myth that Russia can't lose this war.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
No. Not really. Is it a myth? I mean, it's rhetorical. It's performative. It's ultimately fake. I mean, the threat of Russia launching a nuclear attack is no greater now than it was... two years ago, that the reality is that in any direct confrontation between Russia and the US and its allies, Russia would lose. I mean, America is a more formidable power. NATO is bigger and mightier.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
And it's just a sort of tremendous bluff. I mean, I think it should be interpreted as a... operational, informational game. I think what's a more realistic scenario is not the Russians launching nukes, is some kind of fuck-up. Bear in mind that Russia has occupied, since spring 2022, the nuclear power station in Zaporizhia. It blew up the reservoir, which provided the cooling pond.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
It's been shelling from this... nuclear facility across the river into Ukrainian settlements. I've seen them. I've been there. And I think some kind of Chernobyl-style mess-up, where Russia just gets it wrong because it's not very good at these protocols, is more probable than a kind of calculated Russian military strike. I think that is just a kind of negotiating tactic ahead of...
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
some kind of possible deal in spring. And the ultimate audience for this is one Donald J. Trump, back in the White House, who could potentially portray himself as a peacemaker, the man who avoided nuclear war, and all of his...
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
flatterers and supporters can say, you know, Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize because, look, he's avoided World War III and he's brought peace to Ukraine, which, by the way, I don't think is going to be peace. Look at Russia's past record for deals. It breaks them. And then it sort of continues doing what it wants to do. And I think, Sean, this is a fascist project.
Today, Explained
Handing off a war
Putin believes that Ukraine does not exist. He thinks this is historical Russia. He wants to de-Ukrainize Ukraine and turn the whole country, its people, back into a Russian province. That's his goal. He thinks he can get there. And I think he thinks that Trump ultimately is someone that he can... If not exactly dupe, I would say outmaneuver.