Luke Vargas

As importers race to bring in cargo during the 90-day tariff rollback, carriers have already started raising Trans-Pacific shipping prices, with the cost of some June departures more than double current prices. It's the kind of handbrake turn in trade winds that Bailey told me is keeping everyone on their toes.

As importers race to bring in cargo during the 90-day tariff rollback, carriers have already started raising Trans-Pacific shipping prices, with the cost of some June departures more than double current prices. It's the kind of handbrake turn in trade winds that Bailey told me is keeping everyone on their toes.

That could be an issue for you?

That could be an issue for you?

So that is lesson one. But this week's dialing back of U.S.-China tariffs isn't the end of the story. Aftershocks will persist, and even the best-laid plans might need to be torn up in short order. Which brings me to the second thing I learned, that trying to reduce supply chain vulnerability is expensive, a fact likely to widen the gaps between retail's winners and losers.

So that is lesson one. But this week's dialing back of U.S.-China tariffs isn't the end of the story. Aftershocks will persist, and even the best-laid plans might need to be torn up in short order. Which brings me to the second thing I learned, that trying to reduce supply chain vulnerability is expensive, a fact likely to widen the gaps between retail's winners and losers.

Breanne Olson is the CEO of teen retailer PacSun, which is riding the success of having a hit product among Gen Z customers.

Breanne Olson is the CEO of teen retailer PacSun, which is riding the success of having a hit product among Gen Z customers.

Olson said she's convening a tariff task force every week in order to work out sourcing strategies that may need to shift by the quarter. For now, though, things are running smoothly enough that she broke the news to us the brand is expanding into the Middle East.

Olson said she's convening a tariff task force every week in order to work out sourcing strategies that may need to shift by the quarter. For now, though, things are running smoothly enough that she broke the news to us the brand is expanding into the Middle East.

But the California sun isn't shining for everyone.

But the California sun isn't shining for everyone.

Palak Seth is the founder and executive vice chairman of India-based apparel manufacturer PDS Limited. A decade ago, 70 to 80 percent of its manufacturing was in China. Now that's around 40 percent, thanks to a de-risking strategy dating back to President Trump's first term that's seen it expand across South Asia, Central America and Africa.

Palak Seth is the founder and executive vice chairman of India-based apparel manufacturer PDS Limited. A decade ago, 70 to 80 percent of its manufacturing was in China. Now that's around 40 percent, thanks to a de-risking strategy dating back to President Trump's first term that's seen it expand across South Asia, Central America and Africa.

But Seth told me it's his customers he's now anxious about.

But Seth told me it's his customers he's now anxious about.

Geography could determine other winners and losers, too. Ira Kalish is the chief economist at consulting giant Deloitte.

Geography could determine other winners and losers, too. Ira Kalish is the chief economist at consulting giant Deloitte.

And of course, the fortunes of retailers depend on the health of consumers. Kalish said the middle class in particular remains spooked by tariffs in ways that could dent discretionary spending, even if the S&P 500 is back into the black for 2025. The conference board recently found Americans now expect inflation to reach 7% next year.

And of course, the fortunes of retailers depend on the health of consumers. Kalish said the middle class in particular remains spooked by tariffs in ways that could dent discretionary spending, even if the S&P 500 is back into the black for 2025. The conference board recently found Americans now expect inflation to reach 7% next year.