Lyn Alden

So I've been in the gold bull camp.

But for example, if you would have asked me a year ago, would we have seen $5,000 gold by now, I would have said it wouldn't be my base case.

And of course, once gold runs, you get runs in silver and platinum with a lag.

I mean, I think most of the narratives we see around it are at least directionally true, which is that we are seeing countries diversify in percentage terms away from treasuries and toward gold.

No major selling is going on, but the marginal interest is more in stacking tons of gold.

and then you get momentum building from there.

And so if you look in history, kind of the US stock market had kind of four main bear markets against gold, right?

So when we price things in dollars, it's always tricky because dollars themselves that we just discussed are debasing.

When you price S&P 500 in shares of gold, I mean, in ounces of gold, we've had kind of four major bear markets over the past, call it a little over a century.

I think right now we're in the fourth quarter

ones going on right so uh equities although there's many good ones um they're you know they've been debased pretty heavily against the money supply and globally speaking there's just been an influx in demand um lately bitcoin is almost perfectly correlating with like the software stock indices like everyone pointing out that etf igv i believe it is and it's almost a one-to-one correlation it could be the algorithms doing it but

really no way around it.

There's just not been a lot of retail demand for Bitcoin this cycle.

It's almost all been in the corporate sector, all been in the institutional sector.

To the extent there is retail demand, it's mostly been in higher net worth retail that have brokerage accounts, that they have access to the ETFs now.

And so right now, there's not a lot of retail buying.

The interesting thing is that as euphoric as precious metals got, the retail only really came at the tail end of it.

So when Bitcoin was kind of, I mean, when gold was in a kind of a shadow bull market, maybe 18 months ago, there really wasn't much retail participation.

They only came in on the tail end.

And I think Bitcoin just this cycle pretty much lacked retail.