Malcolm Gladwell

But there are a very small number of people who, for reasons we don't entirely understand, when they have COVID, produce a massive amount of virus. Superspreaders. Those are the ones who cause outbreaks. I could go on.

But there are a very small number of people who, for reasons we don't entirely understand, when they have COVID, produce a massive amount of virus. Superspreaders. Those are the ones who cause outbreaks. I could go on.

The lesson of New York's super speeders and COVID's super spreaders is that before you figure out how to solve a problem, you have to ask yourself, am I dealing with a skinny tail distribution where everyone plays a roughly equal part in contributing to the issue? Or do I have a fat tail distribution where my problem is a very small number of very rotten apples?

The lesson of New York's super speeders and COVID's super spreaders is that before you figure out how to solve a problem, you have to ask yourself, am I dealing with a skinny tail distribution where everyone plays a roughly equal part in contributing to the issue? Or do I have a fat tail distribution where my problem is a very small number of very rotten apples?

The world's problems are divided into fat tales and skinny tales. And policing is most definitely fat tale.

The world's problems are divided into fat tales and skinny tales. And policing is most definitely fat tale.

That's Andrew Papachristos, a criminologist at Northwestern University. If you're a regular listener, you've heard him on this podcast before. He's talking about a police officer named Jason Van Dyke, another member of the Chicago Police Department Use of Force Peloton, who shot a teenager, Laquan McDonald, 16 times for no apparent reason.

That's Andrew Papachristos, a criminologist at Northwestern University. If you're a regular listener, you've heard him on this podcast before. He's talking about a police officer named Jason Van Dyke, another member of the Chicago Police Department Use of Force Peloton, who shot a teenager, Laquan McDonald, 16 times for no apparent reason.

It's not just, though, that the officers at the very edge of the distribution do more bad things than anyone else. It's that, and this is crucial, they lead others, people who wouldn't otherwise be in the fat tail, to do bad things as well.

It's not just, though, that the officers at the very edge of the distribution do more bad things than anyone else. It's that, and this is crucial, they lead others, people who wouldn't otherwise be in the fat tail, to do bad things as well.

This is called network spillover. And Papa Christos was part of a group of criminologists who used the Citizens Police Data Project to figure out exactly how large this spillover effect is. They looked at that mountain of data and grouped all of the officers in networks, drawing lines between the people who worked together.

This is called network spillover. And Papa Christos was part of a group of criminologists who used the Citizens Police Data Project to figure out exactly how large this spillover effect is. They looked at that mountain of data and grouped all of the officers in networks, drawing lines between the people who worked together.

They found that if there was no one in your network who received a use of force complaint, then your chance of getting a use of force complaint was minimal. But if you had even a modest number of aggressive officers in your circle, your chances of being accused of violence went up by 26%, which is massive. And this is the problem with Derek Chauvin.

They found that if there was no one in your network who received a use of force complaint, then your chance of getting a use of force complaint was minimal. But if you had even a modest number of aggressive officers in your circle, your chances of being accused of violence went up by 26%, which is massive. And this is the problem with Derek Chauvin.

He's in the Minneapolis Police Department's fat tail. He was the poster child for the Minneapolis fat tail. He had a mountain of complaints. And because he's a training officer, a 19-year veteran, the senior officer in nearly every crime scene he arrives at, he spills over into his network.

He's in the Minneapolis Police Department's fat tail. He was the poster child for the Minneapolis fat tail. He had a mountain of complaints. And because he's a training officer, a 19-year veteran, the senior officer in nearly every crime scene he arrives at, he spills over into his network.

If Chauvin had never shown up that night, if the second squad car never got called, if the whole incident was managed entirely by Lane and his partner, George Floyd would have lived. Thomas Lane would have rolled him over. There would have been no national eruption of pain and outrage. You wouldn't even know the name George Floyd. But Chauvin shows up.

If Chauvin had never shown up that night, if the second squad car never got called, if the whole incident was managed entirely by Lane and his partner, George Floyd would have lived. Thomas Lane would have rolled him over. There would have been no national eruption of pain and outrage. You wouldn't even know the name George Floyd. But Chauvin shows up.

That's the core of the problem on the corner of 38th and Chicago.

That's the core of the problem on the corner of 38th and Chicago.