Marcus Hutter

Well, we see a pattern there.

There's a one and we repeat it.

And why should it suddenly after 100 ones be different?

So what we're looking for is simple explanations or models for the data we have.

And now the question is, a model has to be presented in a certain language.

In which language do we use?

In science, we want formal languages and we can use mathematics or we can use programs on a computer.

So abstractly on a Turing machine, for instance, or it can be a general purpose computer.

And there are, of course, lots of models.

You can say maybe it's 100 ones and then 100 zeros and 100 ones.

That's a model, right?

But there are simpler models.

There's a model print one loop that also explains the data.

And

you push that to the extreme you are looking for the shortest program which if you run this program reproduces the data you have it will not stop it will continue naturally and this you take for your prediction and on the sequence of ones it's very plausible right that print one loop is the shortest program we can give some more complex examples like one two three four five

What comes next?

The short program is again, you know, counter.

And so that is roughly speaking how Solomons induction works.

The extra twist is that it can also deal with noisy data.

So if you have, for instance, a coin flip, say a biased coin, which comes up head with 60% probability, then it will predict, it will learn and figure this out.