Mark Gagnon
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
saying that, hey, we are going to threaten shipping in the narrow confines of the Strait if you guys mess with us.
It's worth understanding Iran's logic here.
From Iran's perspective, this wasn't simply aggression for aggression's sake.
It is deterrence.
If Iran could credibly threaten or shut down the Strait, it has leverage.
And this is a way to just impose costs onto any country that tries to strangle its economy, either through sanctions or military pressure or any other means.
The Strait isn't just a weapon of last resort.
It is one of Iran's most powerful bargaining chips.
So the IRGC became the primary instrument of this strategy.
The IRGC Navy...
is distinct from Iran's regular navy.
It basically deploys hundreds of small, fast-attack boats armed with rockets or missiles throughout the island and along the coastline around Hormuz.
Analysts estimate Iran stockpiled thousands of naval mines, basically cheap, devastatingly effective ships
that they just float into the water.
And Iran developed an arsenal of anti-ship cruise missiles and ballistic missiles capable of targeting any vessel in the strait from shore-based launchers that could be hidden and rapidly relocated.
And as a result, they were building up
a cheap way to control the entire strait because they knew that in their shores was kind of the main corridor that controlled the global economy.
The idea was elegant in its simplicity.
Iran couldn't win a battle against the United States, but it didn't have to.
All it has to do is make the strait dangerous enough that commercial insurers would refuse to cover tankers going through the waterway.