Mark Gagnon

As the United States and the EU tightened economic sanctions, Iranian officials, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior IRGC commanders, repeatedly threatened to close the strait in retaliation.

Iran conducted naval exercises near Hormuz, practicing mine laying and small boat swarming tactics.

And the message is very clear.

I mean, you affect us economically, you try to sanction us, you try to put pressure on us, and we will shut off the world's oil.

Ultimately, Iran didn't follow through.

The economic consequences would have devastated its own oil exports, which also transit through Hormuz, and it's kind of a mutually assured destruction situation.

But then came 2019, and things escalated from threats to action.

A series of tanker attacks occurred in the Gulf of Oman, just outside the Strait.

Several commercial vessels were damaged by what U.S.

intelligence would say were mines placed by the IRGC and their operatives.

And Iran denied it.

They said that they had no involvement.

Iran shot down an American RQ-4 Global Hawk surveillance drone.

The United States came within minutes of launching a retaliatory strike before Trump called off the operation.

In July of 2019, Iran seized the British flagged tanker Stena Impero, a direct act of maritime intelligence.

interdiction basically that sends shockwaves throughout the entirety of the shipping industry.

Insurance rates go crazy.

Some companies begin rerouting around Africa because it's just easier to do that and take more time than to risk going through the straight and getting all of your stuff seized.

And through all of this, a basic pattern

still holds.