Mark Gagnon

And that's part of why countries like Oman and Qatar, both of which have maintained diplomatic channels with Iran, have reportedly been working to mediate this conflict.

China, which brokered a surprise Saudi-Iranian diplomatic restoration in 2023, also has enormous stakes here as the world's largest oil importer.

One other wrinkle that makes the situation way more complicated, Iran doesn't have one navy.

It has two.

So there's the regular Artesh Navy that operates like...

a normal Navy.

And then you have the IRGC Navy, which operates with significant independence.

It has its own doctrine, its own chain of command, its own institutional interests.

That means even if Tehran's political leadership wants to deescalate, the Iranian government's like, you know what, we can figure out a way to make this work.

The IRGC's Navy and its commanders might just say no.

And this is a complicating factor that makes the situation even more difficult to predict and even harder to negotiate.

Here's the strategic calculus that everyone's trying to figure out.

The United States almost certainly has the military capability to force the Strait open.

But doing so would likely require striking targets deep inside Iran.

Missile batteries.

Naval bases, command centers, top generals, things like that, which doing that would risk dramatic escalation.

Even if the Strait were reopened by force, it would take weeks or months to clear out the mines and restore commercial insurance coverage and rebuild the confidence of the global shipping industry.

The Western naval response isn't just the United States acting alone.

This is a combined maritime force, a 34-nation coalition headquartered in Bahrain alongside the U.S.

Fifth Fleet.