Mark Halperin

That's not the case here.

Democrats know that this is a vulnerability, that Mike Rogers is a good candidate, and he could win it.

It's similar to Dave McCormick, who ran in Pennsylvania for Senate, lost, and then came back two years later and won the seat.

Big advantage.

So that's the second of the Democratic-held seats.

Must win for the Democrats.

And then the third is Georgia, John Ossoff.

Now,

Some of my sources thought this was the most vulnerable of the three.

I think it's the least vulnerable in part because there's an incumbent and in part because unlike in New Hampshire where Democrats have a strong candidate and Michigan where they might, the Republican trio running in the May primary, they're not great candidates so far.

Maybe they can grow into it.

But my general rule of thumb about Senate races where there's an incumbent is

is that beating an incumbent requires an A-level challenger, and the incumbent has to have a scandal or be complacent or not raise money.

And Ossoff is none of those things.

He's not complacent.

He's working really hard.

He's raising a lot of money, and he's not had any scandals.

So the three Republicans, two congressmen, Mike Collins and Buddy Carter, and then Derek Dooley, who's a football coach of renown in the state,

They're all fine, but none of them are A-level candidates, at least not yet.

The primary's in May.