Mark Halperin

There's lots to play out, the primaries, the debates, the fundraising.

But if this were a matter of Democrats being more likely, say, to take the majority than not,

This field would look much different.

And as you watch it going forward, just keep your list to nine.

And as there are developments, particularly, again, the resolution of the primaries, ask yourself what Democrats' chances are to win all of the six, all of the six, Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Maine, all six.

They got to win all six.

So if you see any of those slipping towards the Democrats or towards the Republicans, and that could happen, you could see developments.

John Sununu could turn out to be extraordinary candidates.

Democrats could nominate a weak candidate in Maine.

Sherrod Brown could turn out to be, you know, not in keeping with the mood of the state currently.

If you see any of those sticks and you start to think, well, that's going to be a Republican win, either a pickup or a hold.

That's not definitely it, but it's probably it.

And then even if you say, all right, all six are on track for the Democrats.

If you're a Democrat, you're excited.

If you're Republican, you're conservative.

All six of those, say them again, Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia.

Even if you say all six of them on track for Democrats, you still got to find the last pickup.

And that's why you'll continue to watch those other three, continue to watch Texas, Iowa, and Alaska.

And until you can say Democrats have a great chance to win all of the big six and one more, you can't say they're the favorite.

You can't even say their chances are that good.