Mark Mahaney

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75 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard May 2025 last heard May 2025

Mark Mahaney’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Prof G Markets · What to Buy When the Tech Sector is On Sale — ft. Mark Mahaney · 1 May 2025 podcast

But I think you give me five years, I think we're going to have multiple AV vendors. And then Uber sits there as the perfect partner. There's this wonderful blog that put out by one of the Andreessen Horowitz partners two weeks ago. They're an investor in Waymo. And they showed this chart about how well Waymo has launched in Austin. Now they've launched solely exclusively on Uber's network.

And the expression that the investor used was that Uber helped Waymo turbocharge into that market because Uber can go to an AV vendor autonomous vehicle vendor and say, we'll reduce your financial risk. We'll reduce your operational risk. You'll get the profitability faster because these things are expensive. Work with us. And I think that pitch is going to become stronger and stronger.

So I think Uber is going to be a long-term winner. That's my thesis. If I'm right on that, I think there's a ton of upside in an Uber stock here. So I'm going to stay very patient and be a bull on the stock. It's up 30% or whatever. Year-to-date, it's actually the best-performing large-cap internet stock, but that's because it began this year dislocated over these robo-taxi concerns.

But I think the data points are coming in that shows that there will be robo-taxis on Uber's network in the future. And if that's true, you want to buy Uber.

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So, Ed, I like the way you set it up. I'll tell you what I'm trying to do is be greedy. I want to find a situation where I can find a stock that gives me premium earnings growth, you know, 20% to 20% to 30% earnings growth. That's hard to find. I want to find that and a multiple that can go higher, that can re-rate. I call that kind of a double-barreled approach to making money.

You make the most money when the multiple goes up and the earnings growth is premium. Both and, yeah.

love it and actually i think uber is there now i just my comment was referring to most of the other companies you know netflix at 35 times earnings i just don't think it re-rates much higher than that i mean maybe it goes to 37 or something like that but there's not a there's not a huge swing up in the multiple uh same thing with spotify 35 40 times earnings i like the businesses but they're gonna the stocks will go 20 higher because their earnings growth is 20 higher but i give you uber

where I think the earnings growth could be 20 to 30%. And I think the multiple could go up you know, multiple turns from here. Like it's trading at 15 times cashflow. This thing could go to 20, 25 times cashflow. You compound those and that's a lot of stock upside. So that's what I really love to see. And that's why I love these dislocated high quality companies.

High quality companies give you premium earnings growth, but they all sell off at some point or another. Just be patient. And when they sell off, then you can get the earnings growth. Plus you can get a little bit of multiple re-rating and boom, that's your, you know, big upside. Hey, I made plenty of stock mistakes, but that's what I look for. And that's my approach to picking stocks.

tell us about netflix and specifically what is going so right at netflix what is the market so excited about that to your point they don't seem to be that excited about when we look at all these other internet companies well spotify netflix both share something this year uh which is you know in a in an environment where there are rising recessionary risks like what's recession there's nothing recessionary proof but what's recession resilient

What's recessionary resilient? And arguably Spotify and Netflix are. Spotify, $7.99 for a month's worth of access to the biggest content entertainment collection out there on the planet. That sounds like a great deal to me. And I think it sounds like a great deal to most everybody. And the business has been pressured. It's been tested through economic cycles. So

I just think that they're recessionary resistant. And then there's something else that's happening. Industry's gone through consolidation. 2018 and 19 were everybody was entering into the streaming wars. And then we peaked when Disney's fired its CEO for running up streaming losses too high. And ever since then, we've had nothing but consolidation.

And everybody wants to sell, well, I'm exaggerating, but everybody wants to sell their content to Netflix now. And Netflix at the end of the day is sort of taking share in this market. And then there's something else. They're proving that they have pricing power. Like if you have a media company with pricing power, you know, you don't get too many of those. Spotify has it.

They're going to come up with a super fan plan. They got 269 million paid subscribers around the world who pay them. I forget. It's like $13 a month or something like that. You and I both know, we all three know that we can probably name 10 of our friends who are really passionate about music and would spend 25 bucks a month for some really nicely curated

you know, um, early release version of Spotify. They're just passionate. They have all their playlists and their party lists, et cetera. So I just think that there's, and that's, so I, yeah, I think Spotify is the pricing power. Netflix does too. And Netflix is going to, I think Scott will appreciate this. Netflix is going to recreate the bundle. That's their strategy.

You remember how much you paid for your cable bundle? I forget 40, 50, 70, 80 bucks a month. And Netflix has got all of that, you know, uh, high end production content But they're going to bring in more and more live events, more fights, more sports. And eventually you're going to get real big league sports on there because they're going to have the ability to outbid almost anybody for them.

So I just think they're going to recreate the bundle. So the top price on Netflix today is, I think, $24.99. I bet, you know, a dollar, big bet for me that within 10 years, that top price on Netflix for that big bundle that they've got with all this live entertainment, that's going to go to 30.

It's going to go to 35 bucks and people will pay for it because they're going to recreate the bundle for you. So I think that's why Netflix and Spotify today, you know, have been outperforming, not just year to date, but the last, you know, 18 months, the stocks have done well. Recessionary resistance, that's the most recent thing. Expanding market share.

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