Mark Mahaney

speaker

75 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard May 2025 last heard May 2025

Mark Mahaney’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

Trend

recordings per month · last 12 months

No recordings in the last 12 months.Older appearances are listed below; set an alert to hear about the next one.

Appearances

newest first · ▶ plays the moment

Prof G Markets · What to Buy When the Tech Sector is On Sale — ft. Mark Mahaney · 1 May 2025 podcast

industry consolidation, and then their profit ramps. They both have shown this really nice improvement in margins.

Well, Ed, what's implied in your question is a really useful and helpful warning, which is that You know, these are deep consensus longs. Netflix is. And, you know, everybody's cyclical at some point or another. Right. So I'm sure if we had a severe recession, I'm sure that Netflix would be impacted. It does seem like entertainment spending holds up relatively well.

I think it's true that, you know. Filmed entertainment spend actually rose nicely during the Great Depression. I've always heard that. Maybe I saw that on the internet somewhere, so it must be true. But anyway, Netflix has been tested. I mean, it's gone through economic cycles. This one, unlike Spotify, has been public for 25 years. So we've seen what's happened to it.

Now it's much more mature now, much bigger than it was in the past. And so the one scenario that you mentioned, which is what I would watch out for, which is, are you going to see people stick with Netflix but trade down I think that's a real I think that's a very plausible outcome. I do I do think it's deep consensus thinking. So that could be dangerous that it's recessionary resistant.

My biggest concern on Reddit is, I think they've got this great growth, but at the end of the day, you know, the revenue comes, maybe they haven't rolled out any sort of subscription revenue yet. I think, I mean, I would want to watch that. But it's a mid-tier ad platform. And I've never really seen a mid-tier ad platform break through, whether it was Snap, Pinterest, Twitter.

None of them have ever done it because at the end of the day, you got to go to marketers and you got to say, yeah, spend some of your money. shift some bucks away from linear or break it away from meta or Google and spend it on my platform. And the marketer's going to say, because your targeting is better or your reach is better, your frequency is better. Why?

Other than just simple diversification. And I don't think that a mid-tier ad platform has ever really been able to effectively answer that question. And that's why, unless you're something really out of the blue like TikTok, I just haven't seen anybody really break through and generate $10 billion of ad revenue. I hope I'm surprised one day, but that would be my biggest concern with Reddit.

But everything I've seen so far is very intriguing.

I don't know. I'm pretty cautious on Lyft just because it's the distant number two in the U.S. market. Now they're trying to expand internationally. They just acquired an asset in London, I think, like a taxi service, I forgot the name of it. Geographic expansion is a good thing, but the problem with being a distant number two is that your economics aren't in your own hands.

In the December quarter, Lyft stock traded off aggressively on their print because they had a surprise price action that occurred late in the quarter. Uber came in and lowered prices aggressively, and it caused Lyft to miss its numbers. And well, to me, that's why you want to be careful about buying second-tier assets. And so I'm on the sidelines on the stock. I sort of view it as a

as maybe more of a trading asset than an investing asset for really nimble, you know, traders, you know, they want to move in and out of the stock when the valuation gap widens particularly wide and jump in and sell it when it, when it narrows. Okay. I understand that. And it's, that's a very valid way to make a living. It's not what I would suggest for, for retail investors.

Well, there'd be a fourth one, which is recession. That wasn't in my forecast at three months ago, not that I make recession forecasts, but tariffs, yeah. I mean, the tariff wildcard became a lot wilder than I would have thought, and the market as a whole would have thought. Regulation, I don't know, we still haven't had anything that's meaningful yet to tech.

I haven't seen any material deregulation yet. Maybe I missed it, but I'm still watching for that. We've had the tariff wildcard get played. It's going to get played for a while. And then what's the third one? Oh, M&A. Yeah, it does seem like there's more M&A that's being allowed now. Google buying Wiz, security software company. There's smaller acquisitions out there.

So I just think that that's kind of more allowed now. But of those three wildcards at the beginning of the year, the one that came through in spades, if I'm not ruining the analogy, is tariffs. And actually, it turns out the market does have a good hand because the one thing that's really changed administration policy has been a market that said, you know, no mas, we disagree.

We're going to tank the markets. The bond market seems to be the king. Or queen.

Showing 61–75 of 75 · page 4 of 4