Mark Matthews

I don't know that I would have done it if I had known.

It's much harder than I thought.

We need to see at least a few more months of higher prices I think before it really begins to impact consumers' ability to spend.

But like we have seen since 2020, there has been a complete disconnect between consumer psyche and consumer spending.

The National Retail Federation says this growth will be greater than the recent years or the years before the pandemic.

The forecast counts on a slight boost from tax cuts at the start of the year.

It also predicts that inflation might ease in the second half of the year.

The group acknowledged that it's not considering any potential fallout of the war in Iran, including the impact on shipping or gas prices.

Chief economist Mark Matthews says the retail group is still optimistic that the resilient American consumer and, quote,

the underlying fundamentals of the U.S.

economy will support continued stability in the year ahead.

Alina Seluk, NPR News, Washington.

We forecast that holiday hiring would be about $265,000 to $365,000 this year.

That's the lowest that we've seen in the last 15 years.

So definitely some softness there.

What we've seen over time is, you know, this weekend in a shopping context used to be about, you know, in-store on Black Friday.

That's changed, right?

People are shopping earlier than before and they're shopping across the holiday weekend, not just in-store, but online.