Martha Gimbel

I mean, all these distractions, Martha.

On a baseball sense, think Ron Darling at Yale years ago.

On a baseball sense, Martha Gimbel, where are we in the tariff impact?

I think there's a feeling we're in the ninth inning.

I don't buy it.

Where are we in the tariff effect?

I'll get it out on LinkedIn and Twitter as well.

It's the Budget Lab at Yale.

I can't say enough about the clarity and the succinctness of it.

Martha Gimbel there with a great team.

Part of it is that there legitimately has been an acceleration in what the technology can do over just the last couple of months.

I think there's also a broader issue, which is that people are just incredibly anxious about the economy right now and where it's going.

If you look at whether people think they're going to lose their job in six months relative to where the unemployment rate currently is, they're really negative.

And then, of course, when people are piling on saying that we aren't going to have any jobs in two years, that's not going to help.

That there really isn't any, certainly at the macroeconomic level.

You can look at the technology and you can see the potential, but you need to remember that technological-related labor market disruption is

is not instantaneous.

It happens in the context of IT policies, company concerns about liability, broader economic growth trends.

And so I think it's really important to keep all of those things in mind when talking about what jobs are going away, becoming more popular, and how fast this may happen.

I think the thing about the Industrial Revolution is you did see a really big shock to labor.