Mary Daly

And so there will be a point in time when we'll have enough confidence that the anticipated effects are materializing.

And where would you look for that?

You'd look for that in what's happening with price pressures, not just aggregate inflation, but if you disaggregate it and you ask yourself a question, are the AI using sectors just doing less pass-through of input costs into prices?

Well, maybe that tells you something.

So that's where the research really becomes important.

You ask questions, but you also do research where you can disaggregate firms.

You can disaggregate prices.

You can ask, where do we see price pressures and

How do we think they will evolve?

So that's important.

And you can't wait because remember monetary policy has a 12 to 18 month lag.

So right now we're modestly restrictive, slightly restrictive depending on who you talk to.

If you have a neutral rate of around 3% interest, remember that's the one with the big range.

But if you have a neutral rate of interest, think this is around 3%, we have some ways to go, 75 basis points roughly before we get to that level.

But we need to get inflation down and we need to make sure that

it's on a good path.

I'm certainly looking at AI and productivity growth as one mechanism that continues to help us bring inflation low, but we also have restrictive policy and other factors that are all bringing it.

Well,

You know, one of the things that I'll offer here, and it's something probably most of us don't, I mean, you don't look at, I look at it a lot, but is that a lot of the job growth in our nation right now is located in healthcare and education.

And while it's not bad to have jobs growing in healthcare and education, if you look at the rest of the economy, there hasn't really been any job growth.