Matt Lozetti

Yes, certainly a provocative question.

And I think over the next year, we are getting more questions about that.

And I think it's more coming from the global sphere at this point.

You're seeing places like the RBA turn a little bit more hawkish.

There's questions about the ECB.

Bank of Canada, they're seeing stronger economic data as of late.

For the Fed specifically, though, I think you need two things to happen.

One, you have to have a clear elimination of downside risk to the labor market.

We are not there yet.

There's still some fragility in this labor market over the next several months.

Perhaps by the end of next year, we could get there.

And two, you need the labor market to return as a source of inflationary pressure.

So you need the unemployment rate to decline, quits rate to move higher, and wage growth to accelerate.

I think it's possible.

I think you are seeing a substantial reduction in labor supply in the U.S.

economy.

I think if you were to add on even more fiscal stimulus, so if we were to get these $2,000 stimulus checks from the Trump administration, I think that's the type of dynamic that could really shift the debate.

People would begin to think a little bit more actively about rate cuts in the U.S.

But to be clear, I don't think we are there.

Our baseline expectation is the next move is a cut.