Matt Tilleard

So it's extremely likely that if we try, we can diversify.

But second, if we're confronted with the behavior

of a PPF-style cartel.

The elasticity of demand gives us the time and the leverage that we need to break the cartel or diversify our supply.

Now, there will be short-term mismatches between supply and demand, but

Control really matters when supply is scarce and demand is inelastic.

When supply is abundant and demand is elastic, control will always be temporary.

Here's one final piece of evidence that can tie all of this together.

Can you name me a successful cartel for an energy transition mineral?

Have you, for instance, heard of these famous copper cartels?

The Secretan Copper Syndicate, the Amalgamated Copper Company, the Copper Exporters Association, the Copper Exporters Incorporated, and the not-particularly-creatively-named International Copper Cartel?

These are all real cartels, and they all failed.

because when supply is abundant and demand is elastic, a cartel has the lifespan of your average Game of Thrones character.

there will not be an OPEC for renewables.

OK, fine, but won't there be a Saudi Arabia of manufacturing in this transition?

Well, no, at least not for the same reasons, because manufacturing is effectively abundant.

Your ability to manufacture does not constrain my ability to manufacture.

It's not zero-sum.

Nobody can stop you from making solar panels.

Now, being good at building and making things creates wealth, and wealth can lead to power.