Matt Wolf

All of that gets made more expensive through this additional uncertainty, regardless of the source. And right now, tariffs are a huge source of uncertainty for most executives, leaders, and investors that we're talking to.

Yeah, it's a great question. You know, if I knew exactly the future path of the tenure, maybe we would be having this conversation on my yacht in the Mediterranean, but I don't. So, you know, what we're expecting, though, is that this uncertainty will continue to drive yields higher because of the increasing term premium.

Yeah, it's a great question. You know, if I knew exactly the future path of the tenure, maybe we would be having this conversation on my yacht in the Mediterranean, but I don't. So, you know, what we're expecting, though, is that this uncertainty will continue to drive yields higher because of the increasing term premium.

So investors have less certainty about future duration, future policy, future uncertainty in general. So that spread between kind of the natural rate of the 10-year and the traded observed rate will continue to widen and it'll continue to

So investors have less certainty about future duration, future policy, future uncertainty in general. So that spread between kind of the natural rate of the 10-year and the traded observed rate will continue to widen and it'll continue to

you know, we're watching sort of some of the, well, depending on the analysts and the banks you want to read and look at, you know, that sort of upper limit of 477, 48, somewhere 475 around there is kind of, depending again on who you want to listen to, who you want to read, is sort of the upper bound, the marker, you know, past that is the,

you know, we're watching sort of some of the, well, depending on the analysts and the banks you want to read and look at, you know, that sort of upper limit of 477, 48, somewhere 475 around there is kind of, depending again on who you want to listen to, who you want to read, is sort of the upper bound, the marker, you know, past that is the,

could potentially be real trouble for the overall broad U.S. economy. Again, that sort of 4.7 to 4.8, depending on who you want to listen to. And if I just pull up my Bloomberg right now, we're well below that at about a 4.28.

could potentially be real trouble for the overall broad U.S. economy. Again, that sort of 4.7 to 4.8, depending on who you want to listen to. And if I just pull up my Bloomberg right now, we're well below that at about a 4.28.

But it's come up significantly, 10 basis points, 12, 13 basis points just over the last few days, given some of this uncertainty around tariffs, at least as of this recording. So You know, we have room to go before it's troubling, but it's increasing. And this does not bode well for the cost of capital, does not bode well necessarily for dealmaking.

But it's come up significantly, 10 basis points, 12, 13 basis points just over the last few days, given some of this uncertainty around tariffs, at least as of this recording. So You know, we have room to go before it's troubling, but it's increasing. And this does not bode well for the cost of capital, does not bode well necessarily for dealmaking.

And that's just a quick note on that, Scott. That's so important, too, as we're thinking about and analyzing any of the macroeconomic data or anecdotes or whatever we're looking at is that the direct impact is is so important to understand, right? But that's really just the table stakes. And you've got to think through what is the second, third order effect of this, right? So yeah, you're right.

And that's just a quick note on that, Scott. That's so important, too, as we're thinking about and analyzing any of the macroeconomic data or anecdotes or whatever we're looking at is that the direct impact is is so important to understand, right? But that's really just the table stakes. And you've got to think through what is the second, third order effect of this, right? So yeah, you're right.

If more money continues to flow into treasuries or more money continues to flow into private credit, what does that do for public markets? What does that do for the attractiveness of IPOs? What does that do for other asset classes? You know, the real money is made on the analysis of those second and third order effects exactly as you outlined. Such a great point.

If more money continues to flow into treasuries or more money continues to flow into private credit, what does that do for public markets? What does that do for the attractiveness of IPOs? What does that do for other asset classes? You know, the real money is made on the analysis of those second and third order effects exactly as you outlined. Such a great point.

Thanks, Chanel. I'm really fascinated. A colleague of mine at RSM, Scott Reamer, has been doing some really interesting research on the overall complexity of middle market businesses across industries. He published a tidbit of the first bit of that research today on our economics blog. I've been working with him a little bit on it.

Thanks, Chanel. I'm really fascinated. A colleague of mine at RSM, Scott Reamer, has been doing some really interesting research on the overall complexity of middle market businesses across industries. He published a tidbit of the first bit of that research today on our economics blog. I've been working with him a little bit on it.

We found that over the past 15 years or so, the supply chain for middle market companies has become about nine times more complicated to manage, right? So it's whatever sort of baseline complexity existed in 2009 is now, it's nine times more complex than it was then, which I think is really, really fascinating. And I think intuitively it makes sense, right?

We found that over the past 15 years or so, the supply chain for middle market companies has become about nine times more complicated to manage, right? So it's whatever sort of baseline complexity existed in 2009 is now, it's nine times more complex than it was then, which I think is really, really fascinating. And I think intuitively it makes sense, right?

I mean, we understand that just the nature of business has become more complicated. Consumer demands have become more, significantly more complicated and managing all that finding and creating and expanding a niche to add value in the sort of global marketplaces has really become complicated.