Matt Wolf

But by and large, there's a significant amount of assets that we expect to be traded hands this year because the sponsors need to focus on new investments. And yeah, they're not... That 20% cut of the carry on exit, they've been holding out, hoping for multiples to return, for financing to get better, closer to what it was in 2021. It's just not going to happen.

So between the positions being long in the tooth and looming debt refinancings on a lot of these companies, we expect to see a high amount of turnover of these assets. But we expect that many of it will be at potentially lower multiples, right?

So between the positions being long in the tooth and looming debt refinancings on a lot of these companies, we expect to see a high amount of turnover of these assets. But we expect that many of it will be at potentially lower multiples, right?

A lot of these companies that were built or bought in the era of zero interest financing and now the kind of economics of those deals aren't really working. They're just not going to command the multiple that the sponsors need them to. But they have to get transacted again. They just have to be turned over. They got to return money to LPs, even if it's not at the IRR they want.

A lot of these companies that were built or bought in the era of zero interest financing and now the kind of economics of those deals aren't really working. They're just not going to command the multiple that the sponsors need them to. But they have to get transacted again. They just have to be turned over. They got to return money to LPs, even if it's not at the IRR they want.

They got to focus on new funds. And, you know, one of the things that we're watching that I'm specifically watching is.

They got to focus on new funds. And, you know, one of the things that we're watching that I'm specifically watching is.

the role of family offices in those exits um you know it might be surprising to people for people to hear but there's estimates that family offices worldwide most of which are in the u.s have six trillion dollars of assets uh more than hedge funds and they have long investment horizons

the role of family offices in those exits um you know it might be surprising to people for people to hear but there's estimates that family offices worldwide most of which are in the u.s have six trillion dollars of assets uh more than hedge funds and they have long investment horizons

So I'm curious to see and kind of expecting to see that we'll see a large uptick in family offices buying these portfolio companies from private equity groups that are looking to exit. They're going to have to exit a lower multiple. And if you're a family office that has a 7, 10 or even indefinite hold period, you know, this might look like a good deal on some of these actions, right? Yeah.

So I'm curious to see and kind of expecting to see that we'll see a large uptick in family offices buying these portfolio companies from private equity groups that are looking to exit. They're going to have to exit a lower multiple. And if you're a family office that has a 7, 10 or even indefinite hold period, you know, this might look like a good deal on some of these actions, right? Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, I think just another note on that hold period, right, is if, you know, I think it'll make the family offices in some cases, again, when it's a cash generating or near cash sharing business, they'll be much more competitive in this deal environment than a lot of traditional private equity sponsors.

Yeah, I mean, I think just another note on that hold period, right, is if, you know, I think it'll make the family offices in some cases, again, when it's a cash generating or near cash sharing business, they'll be much more competitive in this deal environment than a lot of traditional private equity sponsors.

If you plan to hold something over 10, 15 years, then you are generally much more willing to make investments in improvements and operations that might pay off over a longer period of time, but make sense to you as an investor that would help

If you plan to hold something over 10, 15 years, then you are generally much more willing to make investments in improvements and operations that might pay off over a longer period of time, but make sense to you as an investor that would help

you know kind of win deals away from other other private equity firms so i think you know historically family offices have been a little on the periphery of um sort of mid-market pe transactions and i think we'll we'll see them step a little more into the into the limelight here um so it'll be interesting to watch right and certainly every family office is different they have different strategies different goals of course but um it'd be interesting to see that

you know kind of win deals away from other other private equity firms so i think you know historically family offices have been a little on the periphery of um sort of mid-market pe transactions and i think we'll we'll see them step a little more into the into the limelight here um so it'll be interesting to watch right and certainly every family office is different they have different strategies different goals of course but um it'd be interesting to see that

that wind away. I guess the other thing that we're also, of course, closely watching is we had a surprising CPI print yesterday, more sort of government confusion, uncertainty around tariffs, around policy choices, all of this that

that wind away. I guess the other thing that we're also, of course, closely watching is we had a surprising CPI print yesterday, more sort of government confusion, uncertainty around tariffs, around policy choices, all of this that

creates, you know, more uncertainty in the business decision making environment and adding taxes and sort of not like an actual IRS tax, but sort of a tax to making decisions, making investment decisions and allocating capital across capital markets. So, you know, that's something we watch.