Matthew Dalton

Right.

You know, I was actually at Europe's largest refinery.

It's the Pernis Refinery in the Netherlands that's owned by Shell.

And they, you know, they can produce a number of different fuels.

They can produce diesel, jet fuel, gasoline.

And they were on the jet fuel max setting.

Well, supposing there's a permanent ceasefire and that as part of this ceasefire, Iran is allowing free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, assuming that that happens.

Then there is some jet fuel sitting on tankers in the Persian Gulf right now, and that is sitting in storage facilities in the Persian Gulf that will need to be shipped out.

And then these refiners need to ramp up their production again.

You know, for the flow to get back to normal, it would probably take more than a month if all the geopolitics have been completely sorted out.

The United States is actually, as a single country, is the world's largest producer of jet fuel by a long measure.

So the United States, when it comes to energy, is in a good position here.

— The United States is the jet fuel superpower.

But it is a global market, and what happens in the Middle East affects the United States, not because there's a threat of shortages, but because there's significant upward pressure on prices because of this conflict.

Well, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe decided to cut back dramatically on buying Russian gas via pipelines that connect Russia to the European Union.

And they largely replaced that gas with liquefied natural gas from the United States and a few other places.

This is gas that is put into pressurized vessels that can cool it into a liquid and transfer it across the ocean.

And so the Iran war has knocked off all of Qatar's LNG production, which is about 20% of all global supply.

Most of U.S.

LNG exports go to Europe in normal times.