Maurice Obstfeld

The Iranian regime is fighting for its life.

So I see these as being mostly performative.

You know, the countries know at this point, everyone knows at this point that there are deals to be made and that the use of tariffs for posturing

is a standard part of Trump's toolbox.

So at this point, we have to see what is exactly imposed, what is involved, and what ends up sticking.

But I don't think it's going to have much impact on the situation in the ground in Iran.

The regime is not looking at these and saying, you know, oh my God, we better...

negotiate or go easy on the demonstrators.

I think they're much more worried about the military threats that U.S.

could deploy.

Well, they're more severe, but they also inflict self-harm on the United States.

They implicate trade deals that are sort of in progress.

I mean, you make a deal with Turkey, say you negotiate for many months, and then suddenly you say, well, actually, we're not going to respect Turkey.

that deal because you're trading with Iran, and Iran is being horrible to its people.

But it was known that Turkey was trading with Iran.

This isn't news to anyone.

So the governments that have made trade deals can rightly say, okay, well, why didn't you bring this up in the first place?

Well, as I said, I don't think that the tariffs are really going to be a material factor in all this.

I think the big uncertainty is if and when the Trump administration will use some sort of military intervention and what that will be and what sort of destabilizing effects it can have on the ground and whether it'll bring the regime around or just induce them to attack

American assets that are nearby, which some in the Iranian hierarchy very much would like to do.