Maxwell Marlow

They told us... It is indisputably the case that for every 27 net additional young non-EU migrants on payrolls since 2020, there was just one net additional young UK national.

Yes, I concede.

And I'll be emailing a receipt of my donation to the Trussell Trust, I believe.

It's £100, Sam.

I'll send that over to you afterwards to confirm.

Yes, absolutely.

So these special schools, of which 146 new special schools have opened over the past 18 months, that's an increase of around 9,900 students for the sector.

What this means is these schools are really quite specialist.

There's more staffing, there's more care and attention made.

for students who have a learning disability or other disabilities that would make their education much harder, whether that is in a state school or in a mainstream private school.

So a lot of this has been driven by private equity.

So there's a lot of money flowing in.

But it does mean fundamentally that if they have this educational health and care plan, an EHCP, which has given out

by the council and the NHS in conjunction, it means that they're essentially VAT exempt, there's some taxpayer funding there even, which actually affects the overall VAT take from this policy.

I would say that looking at the arithmetic, the mainstream independent decline, for England at least,

is between June 24 and June 26 would be about 43,100 odd students.

So 9,900 is a transfer from those mainstream schools to those special schools.

And if we were to redo the bet, which we're not doing, because I've conceded already, it would be about 7.7 to 7.9% if you include the 2,600 lost students in Scotland.

So that's really where

A lot of the transfer is going and I still concede and I will be making my donation, but I think this is very nuanced and I expect this to carry on into the long term as this debate in the sector continues to evolve.