McKay Coppins

They could kick them off the platform.

But is that really in their interest?

By the way, you've also seen these predictive markets make deals with major media organizations like CNN, which is now featuring Kalshi's predictive markets in their election coverage.

And so if anything, they're kind of being rewarded for having these insiders trade based on the information they have.

So if you go on to Kalshi or Polymarket, you'll be presented with different categories that you can click on, culture, politics, sports, whatever.

And then it'll provide you with like a menu of bets that you can make.

But what you're doing there is rather than betting against the house as you would with DraftKings or a typical casino, you are actually buying a position from somebody else who's using Polymarket, right?

And so if you want to bet that there will be regime change in Iran by the end of April, for example, you might find that the price to buy into that position is 56 cents per share.

But you are buying that position from somebody else who wants to sell that position.

So it operates more like a derivatives market than it does a casino, even though, in effect, you're doing the same thing.

You're gambling.

Well, this is one of many cases where the predictive markets are different than the sportsbooks.

If a sportsbook refuses to pay out a bet and it becomes controversial for some reason, there are existing regulatory bodies that will receive complaints from gamblers, look at the evidence, and basically rule on whether the sportsbook has to pay out that bet.

And these bodies have existed for a long time in Las Vegas.

They're actually very powerful.

But, you know, there is a regulatory framework around this stuff.

The predictive markets are really even compared to the online sportsbooks operating in a Wild West.

And I think it's worth noting that under the Biden administration, the Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission had both opened investigations into Kalshi and Polymarket, looking into whether they were disregarding or disobeying federal regulations.

But all of that kind of ended when Donald Trump returned to office.

Part of that is because the predictive markets figured out how to play the political game in Trump's Washington.