Megan McCarty Carino

A new account bet on Polly Market that he would be out of office.

They won more than $400,000.

There have been a number of kind of suspiciously timed big winning bets by accounts that are only betting on geopolitical events having to do with specific actions with the war with Iran.

Most recently, there was a flurry of activity around the

the ceasefire that was announced.

Bloomberg reported that $1.7 million had been flowing through these platforms, you know, around the ceasefire.

And there actually have been some arrests in Israel, actually, of two people accused of using classified military information to bet on polymarket.

I think that was going back to

the conflict last summer with Iran.

So this is not only speculation.

There have actually been, you know, arrests made, not in the U.S., but, you know, in Israel.

Yeah, you know, I've been using the word bet.

I don't know if the prediction markets would like that as, you know, just a descriptive verb.

I think it fits.

But the prediction markets for the time being are considered futures contracts.

So you'll hear, you know, you'll hear them talk about events contracts.

This is a very highly contested area of the law, and there are dozens of cases.

Many of them have been brought by state gambling regulators saying that these are gambling markets and we should get to regulate them.

It's been regulated as a futures market by the Federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

since just like 2024.