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Michael Batnick

πŸ‘€ Speaker
4130 total appearances
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Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

Fast forward.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

It's not a mystery, is my point.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

That mix explains the slide from $99 to $66 an hour in three years.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

Maritime and aviation grow slowly and pay well.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

Consumer grows fast and pays less each year.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

But I think the bigger point that I am genuinely so curious to fast forward, how does the market absorb all of this supply that is coming?

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

And yes, it's a $2 trillion market cap.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

The float is relatively small.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

The numbers are big, $50, $75 billion.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

But to Rupert's point, if there is success early on, it unlocks more float faster.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

And what might that do to the market?

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

So Chartkin made this chart.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

This is not inflation-adjusted, but whatever.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

Not whatever.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

It's not inflation-adjusted.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

Okay.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

In the dot-com bubble, what fueled the bubble was a true, and Josh, you were there, a true IPO mania.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

Yep.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

Okay.

The Compound and Friends
SpaceX IPO With Rupert Mitchell, Consumer Discretionary Is Not an Econ Signal, Halo ETF Launches

So in 1998-