Michael Batnick

But I completely agree with the premise of looking at these two areas of the market and concluding anything about the economy.

Pump the brakes.

Here's why.

Look at restaurants, for example.

A lot of them are doing really poorly.

Oh, the consumer must be not able to afford a lot of these prices.

Yeah, partially true.

Obviously, part of it is an inflation story.

You know what else is part of the story?

Supply, valuation.

The valuations of a lot of these quick service restaurants were so stupid.

that they're now normalizing, comps are tougher, there's too many sweet greens and cavas and the Miami Pura Vida.

The competition tells you nothing about the consumer.

Okay, that's number one.

Another area worth looking at or thinking about is the performance of the stock might tell you the opposite about the consumer and who knows in which case.

So for example,

Is dollar general with dollar general or dollar tree be ripping because the lower end consumer is in good shape and they're able to buy more stuff or would dollar general be doing poorly because people that are trading down can no longer like, where else are they going to go?

Or, or, or a third scenario.

no the consumer is doing poorly but the middle class is now trading down and therefore the stock is performing better like it's so messy and you can craft middle class people are going to dollar general therefore the economy's bad but it's both it helps dollar general stock yeah okay it's just it's very convoluted yeah so i think you have to you really have to look under the hood with this one i totally agree all right yes and for god and for god's sake

That's evergreen.