Michael Cembalest

You're welcome. Morning.

You're welcome. Morning.

You're welcome. Morning.

I've talked to Jamie and a lot of other people about this because I know they have a lot of conversations with people in Washington.

I've talked to Jamie and a lot of other people about this because I know they have a lot of conversations with people in Washington.

I've talked to Jamie and a lot of other people about this because I know they have a lot of conversations with people in Washington.

I think they have a Fabergé egg situation here that they don't appreciate, which is they're doing all of this after a period of several trillion dollars of inflows into the United States from foreign markets, where it's credit markets, real estate markets, equity markets. And if you look at something called the net international investment position, which measures this kind of thing, U.S.

I think they have a Fabergé egg situation here that they don't appreciate, which is they're doing all of this after a period of several trillion dollars of inflows into the United States from foreign markets, where it's credit markets, real estate markets, equity markets. And if you look at something called the net international investment position, which measures this kind of thing, U.S.

I think they have a Fabergé egg situation here that they don't appreciate, which is they're doing all of this after a period of several trillion dollars of inflows into the United States from foreign markets, where it's credit markets, real estate markets, equity markets. And if you look at something called the net international investment position, which measures this kind of thing, U.S.

liabilities to foreigners have never been higher in absolute terms or as a share of GDP or as a share of anything you want to normalize it by. So it's a peculiar time to do something that might inadvertently result in a sell America thesis. So far, the movements have been small, but you're absolutely right.

liabilities to foreigners have never been higher in absolute terms or as a share of GDP or as a share of anything you want to normalize it by. So it's a peculiar time to do something that might inadvertently result in a sell America thesis. So far, the movements have been small, but you're absolutely right.

liabilities to foreigners have never been higher in absolute terms or as a share of GDP or as a share of anything you want to normalize it by. So it's a peculiar time to do something that might inadvertently result in a sell America thesis. So far, the movements have been small, but you're absolutely right.

The average globally large money manager, sovereign wealth fund, insurance company, endowment and foundation is massively overweight United States assets versus the rest of the world. So the starting point is that elevated risk-taking in the United States.

The average globally large money manager, sovereign wealth fund, insurance company, endowment and foundation is massively overweight United States assets versus the rest of the world. So the starting point is that elevated risk-taking in the United States.

The average globally large money manager, sovereign wealth fund, insurance company, endowment and foundation is massively overweight United States assets versus the rest of the world. So the starting point is that elevated risk-taking in the United States.

It's small relative to the trillions of dollars over many years that came in, right? So you can have the largest ever outflow that's only 6% of the cumulative inflows. Right. So that's why this is a very potentially imbalanced situation. And you remember...

It's small relative to the trillions of dollars over many years that came in, right? So you can have the largest ever outflow that's only 6% of the cumulative inflows. Right. So that's why this is a very potentially imbalanced situation. And you remember...

It's small relative to the trillions of dollars over many years that came in, right? So you can have the largest ever outflow that's only 6% of the cumulative inflows. Right. So that's why this is a very potentially imbalanced situation. And you remember...

in the 80s when they thought the dollar was overvalued, and they tried to just nudge it down a little bit, and then they lost control of it, and then they had to have another accord later to stabilize the dollar. These things don't behave linearly. You can't just encourage a little bit of capital to leave the United States. That's hard to do.

in the 80s when they thought the dollar was overvalued, and they tried to just nudge it down a little bit, and then they lost control of it, and then they had to have another accord later to stabilize the dollar. These things don't behave linearly. You can't just encourage a little bit of capital to leave the United States. That's hard to do.