Michael Gapen

Well, you're right that I think investors, I don't want to use the word complacent because certainly they're not complacent.

But I think they're optimistic in the sense that the interpretation of markets is that

The day-to-day events here are probably still what they would call in a de-escalation camp, meaning it doesn't appear like things are escalating in a way.

So oil is staying around this $100 per barrel level.

That's certainly a lot higher than it was going into it.

But the view from the market is $100 oil may not be great, but it's something the U.S.

economy can withstand and the global economy can withstand as well.

So it's inflation's rising.

Yes, that will crimp purchasing power.

We can talk about that.

But it does not appear that oil is at a level that would destroy demand, right?

Because a little bit of oil, I mean, I should say it's been more than a little, but a large increase in oil, it initially shows up inflation.

But if it rises too much, then what it starts to do is weaken activity.

And I think the market is telling you, we're in that first stage.

We're in that first part.

It's likely an inflation story.

It may dampen demand, but the global economy should remain in an expansion in 2026.

And that's why I think stocks have rebounded.

It's certainly meaningful for where we think headline inflation is going, right?

So we typically split out