Michael Gapin

I generally agree with the Fed's view, but what I would say is we should really have a watchful look.

i inflation has been above or well above the fed's two percent target now i'm going on five years how long can that happen and inflation expectations still remain stable consistent and and low right so when if that market slips if inflation slips and inflation expectations slip getting that realigned would be costly in terms of of economic output and perhaps on unemployment so i think the fed's right

And I think the way they would answer this question, and I will answer this question, is that's why they're keeping their policy rate at least modestly restrictive.

Yes.

So yes, they reduced policy rates, but they didn't get policy outright easy.

they made it less restrictive.

So they've left it a little restrictive, and they think that balances the pressures they're getting on inflation now versus the softness they were seeing in the labor market.

Of course, we'll see if that's true, but that's the way I think they would answer it.

Hey, we're not even neutral.

We're not even easy.

We're still restrictive on balance, and that should help guarantee that tariff pass-through is transitory.

Well, I think the way the Fed would view it is that we're linking dollar policy and gold policy, or at least dollar movements and gold movements together.

The Fed doesn't set its policy rate to target the currency, right?

So it will respond to fluctuations in the currency and what that might mean about growth and net trade or inflation.

but it doesn't make dollar policy, right?

Other central banks, it's different.

Primarily in the emerging market world, you may actually set interest rates to help guide the currency because that generates a lot of inflation, right?

The tradable sector is much more important.

So I think what Powell was saying is, look, dollar policy and de facto then, if gold is representing sustainability concerns, both of those are really treasury policy.

And so we're not supposed to comment.