Michael Gapin

There's a lot of concern out there.

Let's say there's a laundry list of concerns that all end up looking like greater country risk for the United States.

Whether it's concerns about an unsustainable fiscal profile,

concerns about U.S.

policymaking broadly, whether it's trade disconnections or geopolitical disconnections.

There's a lot of concern about where U.S.

policy is going.

The rest of the world holds a tremendous amount of U.S.

dollar-based assets.

It's about $62 trillion that the rest of the world holds.

and US dollar assets, whether that's direct holdings of US corporates or bonds or equities or money markets.

And so there's really no asset class where the rest of the world can say, well, we don't want dollar assets anymore.

We're going to sell $62 trillion and move them over here.

There is no other market to rebalance to.

So what we think is happening is that means, well, I still have to hold dollar-based assets.

The question is at what price and how do I hedge them?

so the dollar gets a lot of that expression as we would say in in markets the escape valve for pressure and concerns about u.s policy making whether it's the debt profile or geopolitical or otherwise all of that is getting reflected

in the dollar.

So there's a number of factors that are causing dollar volatility.

And yes, usually officials, whether it's the Treasury or the Fed, will get worried about rapid movements in currency markets.