Michael Janda

We saw a lot of different reports overnight.

There's a key one from the Wall Street Journal that the Strait of Hormuz is not open and that the Iranians are

currently blockading ships in retaliation for those Israeli strikes on Lebanon.

That's something we've seen come out from the Iranians as well.

And even if the Strait of Hormuz is open, the Iranian understanding is that they will be charging tolls on ships passing through and that they will still get to decide which ships pass through that strait.

And the current numbers look like they're maybe willing to allow a dozen or 15 ships a day through.

Before the war, that was 130 plus.

And currently, all analysts looking at the ship tracking data say only about three ships have passed through since the ceasefire was announced.

Yeah.

And I guess wrapping it together with what we saw yesterday was that initial optimism that this is the taco.

Trump always chickens out.

We will get a deal.

He likes making deals.

There will be some great deal between the US and Iran that everyone can live with.

But

Already, we're seeing the cracks in that.

So the two plus percent gains we saw on Wall Street overnight are very shaken.

We've seen the ASX sell off in early trade before pulling back again.

And I think it's all going to be very volatile until we see the outcome of these potential negotiations, which may not even happen.

because the ceasefire is so fragile that it looks like it could fall apart, as you say, literally a day after it was signed.