Michael McKee

Also a blowout number for April, revised up significantly to 179,000.

So over the last three months, the moving average is 188,000.

That is strong by any measure, especially at a time when people think the breakeven rate is about 50,000.

172,000 jobs were created in the month of May.

That is significantly higher than last month's number, although actually we're revised down a little bit, 179.

The 115 from last month revised up to 179.

the personal savings rate dropped significantly to 2.6 percent.

So it does show people were going into their savings to keep up the level of spending.

And so that, along with the drop in the overall spending rate, portends maybe a consumer slowdown ahead.

We're looking at PCE inflation up four-tenths of a percent, a tick lower than what had been expected on a year-over-year basis.

That still puts us at 3.8 percent, up from 3.5 percent.

And remember, the headline PCE is the Fed's 2 percent target.

Core PCE up two-tenths of a percent, a little bit less also than expected.

And that puts us at 3.3 percent, the expected figure up from 3.2 percent in March.

So more inflation on a year-over-year basis.

We will be either that or we'll have to just finish the job.

The data's central message will be clear.

Inflation continues to rise well above the Fed's 2% target.

The first question is, how much?

Will headline cross 4% double the target?