Michael Nadeau
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
That's a big question, I think, out there right now.
We recorded an episode last week, and I said that we were sort of in no man's land, right?
Trading below support around 93K or so, above like critical support at that 80K line.
And last Friday, we ended up breaking down from 80 and we've dropped about 15% or so from 90K last week.
And I think that's the big question.
There is some blood in the streets.
Where my head is at in terms of where we are in the cycle, where the markets are at is that
Up until last week, I think if you had a bull thesis, you could still sort of hold on to that.
And I think the bulls still were willing to say that the market could reverse and the momentum could reverse.
I think now going into this week, there's probably less bulls out there and there's probably more...
acceptance in the market that this is playing out how crypto bear markets typically do play out.
And so I think that's where we're at.
So I'm not ready to say we're hitting a macro low for the cycle just yet.
When we do go there,
you know, I expect that it will take some time, right?
I don't think once you go to a macro low, it's not like there's all these buyers that are just ready and then it just takes off, you know, once you hit that low.
So in the last cycle, we had three to four months of...
period where Bitcoin was actually trading below its realized value.
So on the MBRB of less than one, we are still at like 1.4 today.
And so, and even in going back to the cycle before that, you also have like a three to six month period where, you know, you get these really fantastic entry opportunities.