Michael Nadeau

So things can move faster.

This we're just looking at here is like how we measure kind of cycle awareness and where we're at in these cycles.

And really what I'm looking at here is if you look at the far right column that says today,

We're looking to see some of those metrics start to look very similar to what we saw in the early bull.

That's kind of the game that we're playing.

We measure this through the cycle.

So when you look at the market value to realized value, realized value is a proxy for the cost basis of the entire network.

So we're looking for that to kind of come to a collapse to one.

It actually went under one in the last few bear markets.

And so, you know, we're at 1.4 right now.

So that looks like it's got a little bit of a ways to move.

We look at the supply held by long term holders.

This typically is going to be a little bit lower early in a cycle.

It picks up as people come in and buy.

And then during wealth distribution, it drops off.

We can see it dropped off during wealth distribution.

Now we're seeing long-term holders actually starting to step back into the market a little bit.

So that's an interesting metric that we keep an eye on.

The supply and loss for long-term holders, you can see that in the early bull period, it was like 36%.

It comes down as Bitcoin rises, goes all the way to zero, and then it starts to come up again.