Michael Nadeau

And monitoring to get to it's possible those those metrics will just start to line up, which with where we think we're going closer to that, you know, October timeframe.

I don't know for sure, but we kind of anchor to the data and the timing is less important.

But I sort of just anchor to like what has happened in the past.

typically, uh, will play out again.

It's not, it's not random.

It's because of the way cycles, you know, how financial markets work and how cycles work.

Um, you know, we've talked about that, you know, in our writing and previous episodes, I won't go into it, but it's not random, but, um, I would sort of as a base case say it might, it might take a year or so.

Yeah.

Currently, the 200-week moving average is like 58K or so.

That is rising.

As we go, it's a moving average.

We believe that the fair value is roughly around 65K for Bitcoin.

That doesn't mean it can't go below that, right?

So it's possible it could go below.

It's possible it doesn't totally get there.

But we think it's around 65K.

That's where we think the realized value is going to get to as time goes on.

that's also 58k right now so those two metrics realized price 200 week moving average like that to me is kind of your fair value metric and last cycle we did go below that so that's like a extreme you know those are like extremely good opportunities if you actually go below that but yeah that's that's kind of what we're tracking and

The big question is just, you know, are we in like some new regime here with this new Fed and how's the market going to start to process this, I think?

Yes, I do.