Michael Nadeau

Right now we're down 43% from peak to tro.

We were down 67% in the last cycle.

So similar exercise here of kind of thinking, okay, well, you know, Bitcoin tends to lead, right?

When Bitcoin sells off, you know, we're down roughly 40% or so.

There is usually a lag, but NASDAQ usually sells off as well.

And so that could be what's coming.

We don't know for sure.

But if that starts to play out, then I think it sort of gives you more conviction.

Okay, Bitcoin's probably going to bottom sometime in the last cycle, bottom around the same time NASDAQ did.

So we're going to start to see if the traditional markets...

How they process this new Fed share?

What are the liquidity conditions out there?

We think it's rolling over in the US.

Are we going to have a period of disillusionment from the AI sector and just all the investment that's gone on in there?

These are the questions I think that I'm starting to ask to see if maybe we get a little sell-off in NASDAQ.

Bitcoin sells off some more.

Maybe that gets you to your cycle low.

It really is.

And, you know, I think, you know, part of the reason for this and one of the reasons that crypto has these like kind of nastier, I think, bear markets is the mimetic nature of these assets.

And a lot of this is belief and confidence and conviction.